Why doesn’t a dry monsoon forecast necessarily mean a hazard-free season?

As the monsoon season looms, this year’s weather forecast says most regions will likely have below-average rainfall. On May 4, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology released its weather outlook for the monsoon season ( June-September 2023 ). According to the report, most regions, with the exception of a few areas in the eastern hills and Terai, will have a 35-55 per cent likelihood of below-average rainfall. Additionally, the outlook predicts higher maximum and minimum temperatures during the season, which strongly suggests a hot and dry monsoon .

Hydrologist Sudarsan Humagain says the monsoon brings 1472mm of rain to the country on average while the temperature ranges from 29.4 to 21 degrees Celsius. The monsoon season accounts for almost 80 per cent of the total rainfall for the year, according to the New York Times . During the four-month monsoon season, a certain location receives enough rainwater to fill 1.5 water bottles on average. However, the weather forecast indicates that some regions–such as Gandaki, Karnali and Sudurpaschim provinces and the flatland of Koshi–may have warmer temperatures but less rainfall than usual. “These areas may face drought and above normal heat during the monsoon,” Humagain says.