Navigating a warming world

Climate overshoot is an urgent policy challenge requiring immediate global target adjustments.

For years, the global climate debate has revolved around global warming—1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius—and the year 2100. Beyond these warming limits, science warns that climate impacts may surpass the ability of natural and human systems to adapt. The implicit assumption was that 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius represented distant thresholds—serious, but manageable. New evidence shows that a 1.5 degree Celsius guardrail is no longer a distant target for 2100. It is unfolding within this decade. The framing of a distant goal now requires urgent recalibration.