Will Europe’s Embargo on Russian Oil Succeed?

As the war in Ukraine passes the 100-day mark, it is worth asking how much damage Western sanctions have done to Russia’s economy, and whether forthcoming measures – especially the European Union’s newly announced embargo on most Russian oil – can change Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategic calculations.

Oil used to provide the bulk of Russia’s export earnings. In December 2021, exports stood at 7.8 million barrels per day – an annual rate exceeding 2.8 billion barrels.